What are the odds to get a "Crude Horn of Bone" in Roshamuul?

Question

In the Eastern part of Roshamuul there are many piles of bones that you can use. You will either receive a Crude Horn of Bone or spawn a Guzzlemaw. I was wondering if there were any statistics on these for the chances of each. Is it 50/50 or are the odds weighted for one outcome in particular?

Answer 1

I tested this question two different ways:

First: I ran between all Piles of Bones clicking 100 times and acquiring 30 Crude Horn of Bone in this run. This method allows the user a 30% success rate at getting a horn. Now with this being said, even with the odds of success being around 30%, you have a higher chance at acquiring more bones in a shorter time frame.

Second: I clicked a single Pile of Bones 50 times consecutively. I acquired 17 Crude Horn of Bone during this test. This is approximately a 34% success rate.

All in all, it appears as though there is a higher chance to spawn a Guzzlemaw (between 66-70% chance) versus Collecting a Crude Horn of Bone (between 30-34% chance).

Below are videos from each test if you are interested in how I came to have these numbers. Both videos have been sped up due to the time consuming manor of these tests.

First test:

https://youtu.be/Zte--aOGTsc

Second Test:

https://youtu.be/Tde9bYkaXgA

Comments

Great job running the tests! It seems to be in the right ball park for sure and nice to finally get an answer on this after several years. The only thing that would make it better would be more tests to fine tune that number but definitely seems around that 30% range!

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I considered going back over the next few weeks (days off work) and testing further. I found it interesting that both ways were in the 30%+ range. I’ll test more when there’s no sights making life harder.