Whats the chance of getting your preferred slot on bounty task?

Question

Since new update I wonder how much is the chance to get the monster or monster you set on your preferred list.

Answer 1

Beginner Tier — n = 151

Preferred slots (k)	Total weight (n + 4k)	Probability of the specific preferred monster	Probability of getting any preferred monster
0	151	0.6623%	0.6623%
1	155	3.2258%	3.2258%
2	159	3.1447%	6.2893%
3	163	3.0675%	9.2025%
4	167	2.9940%	11.9760%
5	171	2.9240%	14.6199%

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Adept Tier — n = 436

Preferred slots (k)	Total weight (n + 4k)	Probability of the specific preferred monster	Probability of getting any preferred monster
0	436	0.2294%	0.2294%
1	440	1.1364%	1.1364%
2	444	1.1261%	2.2523%
3	448	1.1161%	3.3482%
4	452	1.1062%	4.4248%
5	456	1.0965%	5.4825%

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Expert Tier — n = 488

Preferred slots (k)	Total weight (n + 4k)	Probability of the specific preferred monster	Probability of getting any preferred monster
0	488	0.2049%	0.2049%
1	492	1.0163%	1.0163%
2	496	1.0081%	2.0161%
3	500	1.0000%	3.0000%
4	504	0.9921%	3.9683%
5	508	0.9843%	4.9213%

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Master Tier — n = 259

Preferred slots (k)	Total weight (n + 4k)	Probability of the specific preferred monster	Probability of getting any preferred monster
0	259	0.3861%	0.3861%
1	263	1.9011%	1.9011%
2	267	1.8727%	3.7453%
3	271	1.8450%	5.5351%
4	275	1.8182%	7.2727%
5	279	1.7921%	8.9606%

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 Also I created a calculator tool for this in my website https://www.hakaimarket.com/calculators?tab=taskChance
Here it will show the probability of each slot on 1 , 5 or 10 rolls and also the combined chance of getting at least one of the list of your choices.