Whats the chance of getting your preferred slot on bounty task?

Question

Since new update I wonder how much is the chance to get the monster or monster you set on your preferred list.

Comments

is there any way to know the chance for stars and the chance for these stars on your preferred?

Answer 1

Beginner Tier — n = 151

Preferred slots (k)	Total weight (n + 4k)	Probability of the specific preferred monster	Probability of getting any preferred monster
0	151	0.6623%	0.6623%
1	155	3.2258%	3.2258%
2	159	3.1447%	6.2893%
3	163	3.0675%	9.2025%
4	167	2.9940%	11.9760%
5	171	2.9240%	14.6199%

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Adept Tier — n = 436

Preferred slots (k)	Total weight (n + 4k)	Probability of the specific preferred monster	Probability of getting any preferred monster
0	436	0.2294%	0.2294%
1	440	1.1364%	1.1364%
2	444	1.1261%	2.2523%
3	448	1.1161%	3.3482%
4	452	1.1062%	4.4248%
5	456	1.0965%	5.4825%

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Expert Tier — n = 488

Preferred slots (k)	Total weight (n + 4k)	Probability of the specific preferred monster	Probability of getting any preferred monster
0	488	0.2049%	0.2049%
1	492	1.0163%	1.0163%
2	496	1.0081%	2.0161%
3	500	1.0000%	3.0000%
4	504	0.9921%	3.9683%
5	508	0.9843%	4.9213%

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Master Tier — n = 259

Preferred slots (k)	Total weight (n + 4k)	Probability of the specific preferred monster	Probability of getting any preferred monster
0	259	0.3861%	0.3861%
1	263	1.9011%	1.9011%
2	267	1.8727%	3.7453%
3	271	1.8450%	5.5351%
4	275	1.8182%	7.2727%
5	279	1.7921%	8.9606%

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 Also I created a calculator tool for this in my website https://www.hakaimarket.com/calculators?tab=taskChance
Here it will show the probability of each slot on 1 , 5 or 10 rolls and also the combined chance of getting at least one of the list of your choices.